Iceland rejects move towards the EU as ‘No’ wins referendum with 52.5%

Iceland has rejected taking a step towards possible membership of the European Union. The ‘No’ campaign won Saturday’s referendum with 52.5% of the vote, compared with 47.5% for those supporting further negotiations with Brussels.

According to El Mundo, the results were particularly disappointing for the pro-European camp in some areas where it had expected to perform strongly, particularly in Reykjavik. Early voting, which could account for around 30% of all ballots cast, also reportedly failed to provide the ‘Yes’ campaign with the boost it had hoped for.

The result puts the prospect of Iceland resuming its path towards closer integration with the European Union on hold, at least in the short term, despite the referendum having been promoted by the Government of Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir.

Sovereignty and Iceland’s influence within the EU drive the ‘No’ campaign

One of the main arguments put forward by opponents of closer integration was the limited influence Iceland would have within the European Union’s institutions.

With a population of approximately 408,000 people, opponents argued that Iceland would have relatively little influence over EU decision-making, as well as within the eurozone if the country eventually adopted the single currency.

The campaign against closer ties with Brussels also focused heavily on national sovereignty and Icelandic independence, invoking the history of a country that completed its separation from Denmark in 1944.

The result represents a political setback for Frostadóttir, although her Social Democratic Alliance remains in a strong position in opinion polls. The prime minister had decided to bring the referendum forward to 2026 after it was initially expected to take place in 2027.

The decision came amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Arctic, particularly following the crisis surrounding Greenland and US President Donald Trump’s threats to bring the island under United States control.

The Arctic and the euro fail to convince a majority of Icelanders

Supporters of restarting Iceland’s European path argued that the country needs to strengthen its international position amid growing competition between the United States, Russia and China in the Arctic.

Melting ice is opening new shipping routes while increasing international interest in the region’s natural resources, adding to the strategic importance of the Arctic.

The Government had also highlighted the potential benefits of eventually adopting the euro, particularly as a tool to tackle inflation and reduce the country’s traditionally high interest rates.

Those arguments, however, were not enough to convince a majority of voters. The ‘Yes’ campaign had held a clear lead in opinion polls earlier in the year, but its advantage gradually narrowed during the campaign, with the final surveys putting the ‘No’ side ahead.

Divisions were also evident within the governing coalition itself. The People’s Party, a left-wing populist party that forms part of the Government, initially gave parliamentary support to holding the referendum but later campaigned for a ‘No’ vote.

The 52.5% result therefore puts Iceland’s potential move towards the European Union on hold and confirms that, for a majority of voters, preserving national sovereignty currently outweighs the arguments in favour of deeper European integration.