Trump faces crucial US elections as he risks losing control of Congress

The United States is holding crucial midterm elections this Tuesday, November 3, that could determine the political future of Donald Trump's presidency.

The elections could bring an end to the Republican Party's control of both chambers of Congress and usher in a new period of institutional confrontation in Washington.

The latest opinion polls paint a particularly challenging picture for the US president. The Democratic Party is favored to regain control of the House of Representatives and has a realistic chance of securing a majority in the Senate, an outcome that would represent a major political setback for Trump with two years remaining in his term.

The vote has effectively become a referendum on the president's record, particularly his trade tariffs, immigration policies, the war with Iran, and the rising cost of living.

Democrats lead polls in seven crucial states

One of the most significant developments in the final days of the campaign is the latest poll conducted by The New York Times and the Siena Research Institute, published on November 1.

The survey places Democratic candidates ahead of their Republican opponents in seven states considered crucial to determining control of the Senate: Michigan, Texas, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa.

In Texas, a traditionally Republican stronghold, Democrat James Talarico leads with 50% of voting intentions, compared with 43% for Republican Ken Paxton. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed holds an eleven-point advantage, with 53% against 42% for Mike Rogers.

The margins are narrower in Alaska and Iowa, where Democratic candidates lead by two points and one point, respectively. However, these differences are too small to predict a winner with confidence.

The Democratic Party needs a net gain of four Senate seats to regain control of the chamber, a goal that appeared particularly difficult just a few weeks ago.

Economic dissatisfaction weighs on the White House

One of the main electoral challenges facing Republicans is the financial situation of American households.

Rising food prices, higher fuel costs, and the consequences of trade tariffs have become central issues throughout the campaign. Republican candidates have been forced to defend Trump's economic decisions, even in states where those policies have generated dissatisfaction among business owners, farmers, and consumers.

The war with Iran has added further pressure on the administration, particularly because of its impact on energy markets.

This environment has allowed Democrats to focus much of their campaign on the cost of living and the need to restore congressional oversight of presidential power.

Trump could lose much of his political room for maneuver

Beyond the immediate electoral consequences, Tuesday's results could significantly shape the remaining two years of Trump's presidency.

Republicans currently control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, a position that has facilitated the passage of several legislative initiatives promoted by the White House.

If Democrats regain control of one or both chambers, Trump could face greater obstacles in passing budgets, introducing reforms, and advancing his political agenda.

The House of Representatives also has the authority to launch congressional investigations and scrutinize the activities of the federal administration.

A Democratic majority could therefore increase institutional pressure on the president and force him to negotiate with the opposition on particularly sensitive issues.

However, such an outcome would not automatically strip Trump of his executive powers.

A defeat could define the final two years of his presidency

Historically, midterm elections tend to disadvantage the party occupying the White House. Government fatigue, opposition mobilization, and dissatisfaction among sections of the electorate are often reflected in the results.

This time, however, the political significance of the elections is particularly pronounced because Trump has taken a leading role in the Republican campaign and has urged his supporters to vote as though his own name appeared on the ballot.

A Democratic victory in both chambers would represent one of the most significant political setbacks of Trump's second presidency and could weaken his influence within the Republican Party itself.

Nevertheless, the polls still leave several possible outcomes open. Narrow margins in some states and the possibility of polling errors make it impossible to predict the final results with certainty before the votes are counted.

Americans are voting this Tuesday to elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and fill 35 Senate seats. The final outcome determining control of Congress could take several days to become clear if the closest races require extended vote counting.

What is at stake is not merely the composition of Congress, but also the extent to which Donald Trump will be able to continue governing with the parliamentary support he has enjoyed during the first two years of his second term.