Le Pen leads presidential polls with 36% and emerges as a potential Co-Princess of Andorra

Marine Le Pen is consolidating her position as the leading contender in France's 2027 presidential election, a vote that could also have direct institutional consequences for Andorra.

The next president of France will automatically become Co-Prince or Co-Princess of Andorra, replacing Emmanuel Macron.

According to the latest Toluna Harris Interactive poll, published on Monday, November 9, the National Rally leader would secure between 34% and 36% of the vote in the first round, depending on the candidates standing for election.

The considerable lead over her main rivals places Le Pen at the forefront of the presidential race.

The survey also predicts Le Pen victories in several hypothetical second-round scenarios. Against radical-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she would receive 68% of the vote, while she would secure 58% against former centrist Prime Minister Édouard Philippe.

These projections follow the disappointing performance of Donald Trump's Republican Party in the United States midterm elections, a setback that, so far, does not appear to have weakened the electoral prospects of France's nationalist right.

Le Pen distances herself from Trump following the war with Iran

The French politician, who supported Donald Trump during the 2024 US presidential election, has gradually distanced herself from several decisions made by the White House, particularly the military intervention carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran.

Le Pen has criticised attacks on the sovereignty of other countries and questioned Trump's decision to pursue an interventionist foreign policy after campaigning on a different approach.

Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, has also sought to separate the outcome of the US midterm elections from France's domestic political situation.

Speaking to RTL, Bardella argued that there is no direct connection between the two electoral contests, although he acknowledged that the war with Iran has had economic consequences that have also affected French households' purchasing power.

Mélenchon strengthens his position as a rival while a new figure emerges on the right

The same opinion poll places Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 19% of voting intentions, making him one of the leading contenders to face Le Pen in a potential presidential runoff.

The rise of the La France Insoumise leader comes amid social demonstrations and growing dissatisfaction with France's political and economic situation.

Meanwhile, France's moderate right is witnessing the emergence of another contender: David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes and founder of the Nouvelle Énergie political movement.

Lisnard receives 9% support in scenarios where he appears as a candidate, placing him ahead of Bruno Retailleau, one of the leading figures of The Republicans.

The mayor of Cannes has called for primary elections among moderate political parties to prevent the presidential contest from becoming a confrontation between Le Pen and Mélenchon.

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe has also gained prominence, reaching 14% of voting intentions in one scenario involving a unified centrist candidacy.

Olympic champion Teddy Riner enters the presidential race

France's presidential campaign gained an unexpected contender on Monday with the announcement by 37-year-old Teddy Riner, one of the most successful judokas in French history and an Olympic champion.

The athlete announced his intention to stand in the 2027 presidential election, presenting himself as an independent candidate outside the traditional divide between left and right.

Riner says his political project aims to address social divisions and promote policies focused on equal opportunities, social justice and the fight against racism.

His entry into the race introduces another element of uncertainty into an election in which traditional political parties are struggling to build an alternative capable of attracting broad electoral support.

Andorra could have its first female French Co-Prince

Beyond French domestic politics, the 2027 presidential election will have particular institutional significance for Andorra.

Under the Andorran Constitution, the president of the French Republic serves as one of Andorra's two heads of state, alongside the Bishop of Urgell.

Consequently, if Marine Le Pen were to become president of France, she would also become the first woman to hold the French Co-Princeship under Andorra's current constitutional system.

Such a development could mark a new chapter in relations between Andorra and France, particularly regarding sovereignty, bilateral cooperation and the institutional role of the Co-Principality.

However, the powers of the French Co-Prince are established by Andorra's Constitution and differ from those exercised by the French president within France's own political system.

Le Pen's strong position in the opinion polls therefore raises a political and institutional possibility that Andorra will be watching closely in the coming months: the prospect of having a female French Co-Prince from 2027 onwards.