Cinca Predicts Africa Will Become Andorra’s Main Source of Labour

Former minister and current chairman of the Management Committee of Andorra’s Pension Reserve Fund, Jordi Cinca, has once again placed immigration at the centre of the public debate, arguing that Andorra will continue to need foreign workers and predicting that Africa will become one of the main sources of labour for Western countries in the coming years.

Cinca caused controversy last week with an article in which he said he found it difficult to «recognise Andorra in this radical rejection of immigration» and criticised the tendency within part of the political and public debate to portray immigration as a problem and as «the cause of all our problems».

The former minister, who describes himself in the article as the son of immigrants and born in Andorra, defends the role immigration has played in building the country and argues that the current debate should focus more on integration than on closing the borders.

Cinca warns of a change in the origin of the workforce

One of the most significant points in the article is his prediction about the future of migration flows. Cinca recalls that for decades Andorra has relied on workers from culturally close countries, but argues that this situation is changing.

According to the former minister, these countries no longer have the same capacity to export workers because they are also beginning to need immigration to deal with their own ageing populations.

Against this backdrop, Cinca states that, «within a few years», only the African continent will be in a position to provide the workforce that Western countries will need. His prediction places Africa among the main future sources of labour migration towards Europe and other developed economies.

The former minister believes Andorra should begin preparing for this change and calls for advance planning on how this future immigration will be welcomed, integrated and incorporated into Andorran society.

A fertility rate of 0.8 children per woman

Cinca bases much of his argument on global demographic trends and, particularly, Andorra’s low birth rate.

According to data from the Department of Statistics cited by the former minister, Andorra’s fertility rate is around 0.8 children per woman, well below the approximately 2.1 children per woman considered necessary to maintain generational replacement without relying on migration.

Cinca also cites sociologist Joan Micó, from Andorra Research and Innovation, who points out that every year more residents reach the age of 65 than young people turn 18.

For the former minister, this is not a future threat but a reality that is already affecting the Principality.

More immigration to sustain pensions, healthcare and the economy

Cinca directly links population ageing to the sustainability of pension and public healthcare systems, as well as to the economy’s ability to maintain its current level of welfare.

The former minister argues that Andorra will need enough working-age people to fill the jobs required by its economy and says it will be difficult to produce more with fewer workers in a model still heavily concentrated in tourism, retail and construction.

He also argues that artificial intelligence and technology will help increase productivity, but believes they will not be sufficient on their own to compensate for the loss of labour.

Cinca also advocates greater economic diversification and links this need to the Association Agreement with the European Union. According to his argument, a more closed Andorra would have fewer opportunities to diversify its economy.

«The challenge is not whether they will come, but how we welcome them»

The former minister considers the need for immigration inevitable and criticises the fact that the political debate focuses on the stigmatisation of immigrants.

For Cinca, «the real challenge is not whether they will come – they will have to – but how we welcome them».

He therefore advocates an integration model based on learning the language, understanding and respecting how the country works, and building a shared project.

Cinca nevertheless warns that integration also requires «effort, resources and mutual demands» and argues that it cannot be built on «distrust or fear».

Criticism of «national priority»

The former minister also questions proposals for «national priority» put forward by some political and social sectors.

Cinca recalls that he is the son of immigrants and says that if a national-priority policy such as the one promoted by some sectors today had succeeded sixty years ago, «many of those of us who are proudly Andorran today would probably not be living here».

He therefore argues that, before «closing any doors», Andorra should remember the role immigration has played in the country’s economic and social transformation.

The former minister argues that Andorra was built in large part by people who came to the country to work and later settled there. Now, faced with population ageing and labour shortages, he believes the country will once again need immigration, although the origins of those migrants could change substantially over the coming decades.